Iowa Caucus Too Close to Call: Primary Predictions, January 31, 2016
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Predictions 2016: U.S. Presidential Primary Predictions & Caucuses
Democratic Candidates:
Bernie will do better than expected in the primaries. Clinton ultimately wins the Democratic nomination, although it is a close race. New Hampshire: Sanders wins, 2nd Clinton
Iowa: Too close to call. Post-Recount: Clinton wins, 2nd Sanders. A lawsuit ensues, with claims that someone connected to Clinton's campaign may have tampered with the results. Ultimately, campaigning with Bill (along with the memories his image evokes of a more prosperous era) will tip the scale in Hillary's favour.
South Carolina: Clinton wins, 2nd Sanders
Nevada: Clinton wins, 2nd Sanders
Republican Candidates:
Watch for that Ted Cruz scandal that I've been predicting to emerge soon, and for Trump to begin creating his own party. You will hear hints about the start of Trump's plans in about 6 weeks. Trump has no interest in being beholden to the GOP. He is using the party as a marketing platform. He knows the party does not generally want to be associated with him and anticipates that the RNC will, as he will say, "do everything they can" to disrupt his campaign, at which point he will quickly move on for a third party run.
Despite Trump's success in the early states' primaries, don't be fooled-he isn't the candidate who ultimately takes the GOP nomination. Christie surprises and Jeb rises. Bush and Trump exemplify the classic children's story of the Tortoise and the Hare: Trump will ride on his self-satisfied certainty of success while Bush continues slowly and steadily, moving from least expected frontrunner to GOP nominee.
New Hampshire: Trump wins, 2nd Cruz Iowa: Trump wins, 2nd Cruz, 3rd Rubio South Carolina: Trump wins, 2nd Cruz (close race) Nevada: Trump wins, 2nd Cruz Subscribe to this blog and receive more updates on presidential primary predictions.